Welcome to our preview of the 2012 Welsh National (being run in 2013 !). Before we start, just a reminder that are still 2 x free £5 bets for the Grand National to be released when we get to 500 followers so please help us get there and Retweet (full details in our previous post).
One of the mid-season staying highlights, this race is a long-term target for many horses due to the fact that the ground is usually predictable, being soft or heavy. This feels like a slightly sub-standard renewal as the top weight is usually a few pounds higher, as is the average. The report for the going stick was 3.3 on Thursday at 3pm, which is as low as I can recall so this could be brutal with probably only around 6-8 finishers. If you can resist, this may be best watched .... if not, make sure the sink stays in the kitchen !
Starting at the top of the handicap, Across The Bay is a horse I can speak about with some authority as I know one of the owners. They brought this horse back from Ireland and have had great fun with him since. Last year he went down the hurdling route and had a great season culminating in his 3rd to Big Bucks at our beloved Aintree. Since then he has gone back chasing and really shone, winning at Kelso and Carlisle followed by a 2nd to Wayward Prince (btn 2 1/2L and giving 6lb). For me he is too high in the weights, but has kept improving. He has been aimed at this race since Aintree, indeed if he won there he would have gone to the Lexus, such is Donald's view of his ability. He's fit and well, so fingers crossed for the syndicate as I'd love him to go close.
Next on the list is Giles Cross. Second in this race the last 2 runnings, his form is staggering in that he has never been out of the first 3 home when completing. He has also won a Southern National and the National trial at Haydock and gets his favoured ground here. Vic Dartnall's stable has had the herpes issue recently but it's been confirmed Giles Cross was unaffected and was moved out at the peak of the outbreak. Must go well if fit, even off his career high mark, with only the lack of a prep run against him. I can see him finishing in the places.
Teaforthree is on the same mark and also has a big chance. He is our current tip for the Grand National (pre the weights being released). His form figures at Chepstow are 2311 so he certainly likes it here, including one win on heavy ground. This race has been his aim since the end of last year and quotes from Rebecca Curtis also adds to his claims:
"His main asset is his jumping - he's brilliant - and obviously he stays forever and acts on heavy ground. Everything should be in his favour"
| Teaforthree and Rebecca Curtis |
I don't think I can find a negative but at 3/1 he's a little short to back in a marathon slog.
Michel Le Bon has claims but with ground and trip uncertain has too many questions to answer although he did go well last time. The lightly raced Soll really is an unknown quantity. Fancied for the NH Chase and going well when brought down, his last run in the Hennessy looked very much a pipe-opener and a one-paced 8th gives encouragement for this longer trip. With form on the ground, he is one for the shortlist and there are good vibes around for him. Universal Soldier is improving and looks like a stayer. Favourite for this last year when 5lb higher, Viking Blond has course and ground form but has something to prove. Master Overseer is a Midlands and Sussex National winner and is a dour stayer who won well last time, could go close.
Jadanli certainly has ground and distances boxes ticked but this is tougher. Mon Mome has been in the handicappers grip since his Aintree win and still may not be low enough, especially as a 13-y-o. Triggerman has never ran on ground like this so is passed over. Monbeg Dude is lightly raced having only had 5 runs over fences and is on the upgrade. There was a lot to like about his Cheltenham win and a light weight on this ground could be a bonus. Harouet is another who likes a trip and the ground but his Carlisle win could be his big day this season. Sona Sasta has great claims based on his last run. The worry is his inconsistency but again ground and trip appear right and he won here last time out. Our Island is very experienced for a supposed novice, having run over fences 12 times now, completing in all but one. He has places in some good races and ran with credit in the NH Chase and this race last year, but just seems to be wanting at this level. Incentivise is another with trip and ground credentials although I'm not sure he'd be lining up for the stable, but for the injury to Le Beau Bai. Arbor Supreme is of massive interest if the form of his last run is maintained and could be the each way bet of the race. Jonjo's only runner in a race he does well with for JP (Synchronised, Mini Sensation), he is a veteran chaser with in and out form and was 33lb higer when last running in this 2 years ago, but anything close to the form of his 2nd to The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo Chase and he wins here.
In summary, there are many horses with positives around the trip and ground. Our guess at the first 4 home is Teaforthree, Monbeg Dude, Soll and Giles Cross. Interesting each ways are Master Overseer and Arbor Supreme.
Good luck sorting this one out ..... let us know your fancies below or via our Twitter page. Although the main action is at Chepstow we are also keeping a particular eye on the last race at Sandown too, which involves 3 horses highlighted in our recent 'Challengers' blog.
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