| "Very, Very Sneaky" |
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With every Saturday that passes the Aintree picture is starting to build. Some horses are clearly being focused to try and win these 'trials' while others are being run to keep them ticking over and hey-ho, if their handicap mark falls in the meantime then so be it. With two very lacklustre runs so far this term, I'm feeling that last year's winner of our feature race this week, Hey Big Spender, falls firmly in the latter camp although we're keeping our eye on him still for Aintree.
The Classic Chase was first run in 2004, although a few runnings have been lost to the weather. Good luck in finding trends as the runnings so far have gone to horses aged 7, 8, 9, 10 & 11 and weights between 10-1 and 11-12. The only guarantee about this race is that it's always going to be soft or heavy. With this in mind, anything declared by trainers here will have been aimed at the race with the ground in mind and even if no previous experience, it must be expected to go on the ground. Mr Frisk would never have been declared for this one ! Early enough still for unexposed second-season chasers, it's never easy finding the winner. The ground this year appears to be genuine soft ... decent jumping ground, unless any late rains come and the track has also been 'slit' this week to help the situation.
Starting at the top Aurora's Encore has claims on his game Scottish National 2nd but has struggled since, appears to prefer better ground and even with his drop in the ratings I can't have him here. Restless Harry has his first try in h'cap company here. A frustrating type, he can be hot and cold. I'm not convinced he's anywhere as good over the big obstacles but he is well treated if recreating his best hurdle form. Based on him never going over this distance too, a place could be achievable but I wouldn't be confident of the win. Robin Dickin seems bullish today though on sportinglife.com and this is the one I leave out with most regret. Bradley is of huge interest. He looks a proper stayer, as proved by his runs at Haydock and Cheltenham and keeps improving. The form of his 2nd to Monbeg Dude is also looking good quite now. He can be forgiven his run last time after some mistakes. Fergal O'Brien commented today :
"His form with Monbeg Dude does look good now, and he has been solid all season apart from his last run, which we just want to put behind us.Universal Soldier also fits the 'improving' bill. Not the most experienced over fences, his 7th in the 4-miler at the festival and his 2nd at Haydock are solid and his mark hasn't really moved much while the handicapper gets his head around this one. Could go very well and at the current prices I'd say he's the value bet of the race. Benheir is in the same ownership as Teaforthree and connections go for their second big staying chase within a week after narrowly missing out last saturday. Although a novice, he has now had 6 outings over fences (won or placed 4 times) since October though a rise and the lack of a claim may put an end to his good run. Nigel Twiston-Davies seems to a have a conveyer belt of these mud-loving, staying chasers like Major Malarkey. Fourth in this last year, he was also second in the Midlands Grand National and last time out in the London Grand National (a very grand title indeed for an average h'cap), he certainly has the right profile but my doubts are his now career-high mark and ability to improve further as a ten year old. Place claims.
I don't think he was himself that day what with one or two niggles, but if he puts his best foot forward he can run a big race.
He goes on any sort of ground and ran well at the course last year when he was second in a hunter chase to a good horse in Monkerty Tunkerty "
Pete The Feat is turning out to be this year's 'Hunt Ball', improving nearly 3 stone since being transferred to Charlie Longsdon. As we found out last year, horses can keep improving but this race is 'Premiership' not 'Championship' - he won the Mandarin last time but 7/2 is way too short for me.
Just as a side note, what have they done to that race over the years apart from nearly kill it ? It used to be a grand old handicap run in February I think. I recall Maori Venture won it on the way to his National success (I know because I backed him in both as a sprightly teenager ... those were the days when as long as you looked like you might grow some 'bum-fluff' on yer chops, the slip was always greeted over the counter with a 'between-me-and-you' wry smile). Looking back at Hill Trix's win in 1995, the prize money was about the same as the recent race ! I think it was then dropped for a few years in the early part of the last decade and brought back in 2008 as a Graduation chase, won by the likes of Carruthers and Gone To Lunch (1st prize £19k) and now for the last 2 years is back to a handicap with a first prize of £7k. A sad demise for a race that is supposed to be a fitting tribute to one of Newbury's greatest. I'm all for changes to the pattern but NH should maybe protect some of these old handicaps and take a leaf out of the flat's book by making them 'Heritage' races. Other notables I can think of that have been downgraded or virtually gone by the wayside over the years are the Edward Hanmer and Tommy Whittle chases at Haydock, the Brown Chamberlain at Newbury and the Eckbalco hurdle at Newcastle. Rant over .... back to this week's business.
Quentin Collonges is one to watch with interest, he finished his hurdle career with a defeat of Galaxy Rock (levels) at Doncaster before coming 6th in the M.C.P. race at Cheltenham Festival. He then had a decent novice season last year, before being sent off at far too short a price for the Scottish National and was pulled up. Henry Daly would not have tried him at Ayr if he thought he was a non-stayer and his last run looked like a pipe-opener but the ground is a concern. Wellforth is one of those Irish raiders that could surprise. He'll certainly act on the ground but is plenty high enough, therefore is dismissed.
Alan King has grown a liking for this race, winning it with D'Argent and West End Rocker. It's quite interesting he sends a novice here in Godsmejudge who has only competed over fences 3 times (2 beginners and 1 h'cap where well beaten). I'm sure this horse can improve but it's a big ask for such inexperience to go well here. Sea Saffron appears to like a trip but is not young enough, not light enough and not good enough. I hope the owners have a great day, although I must compliment the trainer on doing a fantastic job to achieve such success and get him into a race like this. He has been placed very well for his wins. He might have had an each-way squeak if this was run at Exeter.
Beware Venetia's runners at your peril ! ....... except maybe this one. Rigadin De Beauchene is on the upgrade and the ground looks in his favour but may not be good enough in this grade, particularly as his jumping can cost him. Also the fact Aidan has defected is a negative. Finally we come to Mrs S Gardner's second runner, Flying Award. For such a small stable, she has a very good strike rate and this fella completed a double at Exeter for the yard on New Year's Day. Usually ridden by her daughter, the booking of @AidanColeman shows ambition and he has ticks in the 'trip' and 'ground' boxes and has never failed to complete. Could be the dark horse of the race and as Emilio the butler in Mr Deeds said "I fear you are underestimating the sneakiness sir " (... and by the way if you haven't seen the film, it's a must-watch)
In summary, this is a very competitive contest. Seven of the thirteen runners were placed 1st or 2nd last time out so a few people will disappointed at around 3.45pm on Saturday.
Our first three home are : Bradley, Universal Soldier & Major Malarkey
Each way selection : Flying Award
Almost of equal interest is the Pertemps Qualifier on the same card which could feature several National contenders all looking to get a run and protect their chase mark. Don't expect any of them to be winning here but a staying-on 4th or 5th would be a great result for any of them, particularly we must observe Sunnhillboy if he competes.
Back on monday with the 'post-match analysis' - happy punting !
If you enjoyed this article why not read some of our earlier ones, particularly our 2 posts on the Grand National changes and challengers.
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