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Welcome to part 2 of our our end of year blog and as Eddie Murphy said in Trading Places, "Merry New Year" .....In this part we are focusing on the key trials and those horses currently at the head of the market for the Grand National.
There is a twist though. We have 2 x £5 bets for the race up for grabs. We currently have 2 main fancies which will be revealed at the end but you can choose your own. One bet will go to one of our existing followers who Retweets- the second one will go to one of our new followers. Both bets will be released once we get to 500 followers so pls help us.
Onto business. The obvious trial to look at first is the Becher Chase. The winner was the magnificent Hello Bud who has finally been retired since. What a way to go out ! Doth of cap to that fella. Next home was Join Together. Currently near the head of the market and a promising novice hurdler and chaser, for us he may now be firmly on the radar of the 'Simon Cowell of the National' .... Mr Phil Smith. One of our old favourites, Big Fella Thanks, showed the usual improvement upon leaving Ferdy's yard and despite Tom George's reservations we would love to see him have one last crack if the ground is good to soft or better, especially at the 210.0 currently available on Betfair. The next 2 home, In Compliance and Swing Bill are easily passed over but in 6th, Gullible Gordon is of huge interest. His train, Peter Bowen, has a great record here (see Always Waining) and would dearly love to win this prize. This horse was a casualty of the Harry Findlay issue and has ended up in great hands and for us remains under the radar, having won the Desert Orchid cup (3m 3 1/2f) at Wincanton off 134 around 2 yrs ago. Injury prone since he remains unexposed and took to the fences well in the Becher. Even off his current mark of 130 he is of interest though it must be noted that bottom horse last year was 132 so is on the cusp.
One of the other key trials is the Hennessy. I'm pretty sure that the prominent finishers won't line up at Aintree, even though we think First Lieutenant or Tidal Bay could surprise a few (UPDATE : both now doubtful after great Lexus performances). One key trend over the last few years is that horses carrying weight in the National now have a real chance, as do older horses (see State Of Play, Don't Push It, Neptune Collonges etc.). This is partly because the standard of the 40 entrants is getting better. The race is less risky and fairer and in our opinion, Phil Smith does a great job at the weights, absolutely spot-on. Anyway, back to Newbury, and those filling positions 4-9th all remain of interest, particularly Teaforthree who looked all over a National horse when winning the 4-miler at Cheltenham.
A quick word on the JP McManus pair of Sunnhillboy and Alfie Sherrin who both recently ran very unassuming races and are high on our agenda. Of JPs other horses, recent Leopardstown winner Colbert Station appears more of an Irish National type to us for now, though Ted Walsh was quoted as saying:
"He is lightly raced and that was only his fifth run over fences. Like a lot of the others we had this race in mind for a while. I was a bit disappointed with him in Navan but the horse that beat him (Roi Du Mee) was so well in. He might be an English National horse in time."
"He is lightly raced and that was only his fifth run over fences. Like a lot of the others we had this race in mind for a while. I was a bit disappointed with him in Navan but the horse that beat him (Roi Du Mee) was so well in. He might be an English National horse in time."
Looking at recent action over here, Ascot's Silver Cup runners Hey Big Spender and Hold On Julio must be watched and Cannington Brook must be respected on soft or worse ground though his weight rise won't help.
Junior is now very much above his station for us, particularly after a further weight rise for winning a very soft Rehearsal Chase and faded badly at Kempton when tried higher.
We would like to see Cape Tribulation line up one day, a fact further highlighted by a very easy Rowland Meyrick win. He is one of the most consistent NH horses in training.
Now for a bit of an off the wall run. Prince De Beauchene lined up at Limerick on 27th Dec in a conditions hurdle after a lay-off and fairly sluiced home against decent opposition. Fancied last year after a good Bobbyjo chase winner and as a previous Aintree winner, he is massively respected.
Finally, here's a few still to be watched: Alfie Spinner, Seabass, Cappa Bleu, On His Own, Ballabriggs, Harry The Viking, Oscar Time , Tharawaat, Killyglen, Planet Of Sound.
Of this list we particularly like Ballabriggs. Campaigned selectively since his win and now only 2lbs higher than when winning he ticks the ground, trip, aintree-factor and distance boxes. Hopefully, his weight won't rise too much further for his previous win.
We also respect Cappa Bleu who was nowhere near fit on his reappearance at Carlisle. Evan Williams is doing a 'State Of Play' one feels and just honing him for the big day.
Who do you like .... Let us know and tweet or comment below.
Now onto our 2 main fancies at this point - the first is Teaforthree and the second is Ballabriggs. All may change once the weights are announced.
If you win we will DM you for details and would like you to RT to prove you do not already know us!
Thankyou for reading and feel free to comment on anything you think or anything we do,
Happy new year
@aintreeinfo
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