National Nibbles - Andy Richmond
Today's National Nibble is provided by Andy Richmond. Andy is a former Betfair employee who is now a full-time punter/analyst covering a whole host of sports but he is in particular an NFL nut (I know because he exchanges tweets with my cousin that include a foreign language made up of such things as rushing, punts and downs). He also works for Racing UK so you may have seen him on-screen.
Andy is also doing an Aintree Preview evening for the excellent Northern Racing Club via their website this wednesday - here is the link for details http://www.northernracingclub.com/ForthcomingEvents.htm
What are your earliest National memories ?
It would probably be the iconic National in 1973 when Crisp, the great Australian chaser, led for much of the contest before being cruelly but majestically caught near the finish by the late, great Red Rum who was winning the first of his Nationals. I often wonder if the exchanges had been around what price Crisp would have traded when jumping Bechers clear the second time around and by the same token what price Red Rum would have been.
Which has been your favourite National so far ?
That’s a very tough question as there are so many to choose from; Aldaniti’s emotional victory would feature highly as would the ’78 and ’84 victories of Lucius and Hallo Dandy as I was always a great Gordon W Richards fan. To answer the question though I’d have to go down two routes, for sheer drama, horsemanship and pure bravery it has to be the 2001 victory of Red Maurader and for personal financial reasons it would have to be the previous year when Ruby and Ted Walsh combined with Papillion to win.
Which 2 horses would you put up against the field in this years renewal and why?
It’s amazing that the Irish haven’t won the Grand National since 2007 with Silver Birch, given the strength of their challenge each year and they look ultra-strong this year, so I very much want to keep the Emerald Isle onside. I thought SEABASS ran a tremendous race last year despite the question marks over his stamina and given his performance last year I think those have now been allayed – the furlong shorter difference will certainly help this year. He’s been eye-catching on both of his starts this year when a runner-up over hurdles and third in the Bobbyjo Chase. I always like horses in the National that travel close to the pace and Seabass fits the bill ideally having tracked the leaders, jumping and travelling well last year and I can see exactly the same scenario this year and at the very least he looks rock solid back-to-lay material – he got as low as 2.20 last year.
If Ted Walsh has a good National then so am I as I also like his other runner COLBERT STATION; he was a well-backed winner of the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas and has since won very easily over hurdles and looks to have been given a typical Walsh preparation for the race. He’s another who travels with a fluent and relaxed style and looks an ideal vehicle for in-running players like me and he gives Walsh a great 1-2 'punch' in a race that he knows how to win.
What effect do you think the new modifications to the start and the fences will have ?
The modifications are interesting but I don’t really think that the shorter run to the first is going to have any effect on the speed that they will be travelling to the first and as usual, with adrenaline pumping and everyone looking to get on with things, the pace will still be fierce and this is one “modification” that may backfire. The relocation of the start for a more “relaxed environment” is understandable but it might not work as well as the authorities think it will.
The fence modifications look to be an excellent decision though especially getting rid of those horrible stakes that used to form the centre of the fences and were, when exposed on the second circuit, described as looking like 'sharks teeth'. The fences still command respect though ... BUT ... with all the modifications that Bechers Brook has had made to it, are the riders now guilty of treating it like any other fence and with the drop on the inside now removed, making it into a Canal Turn like experience, which means that the inside becomes more crowded and dangerous (cf. According To Pete last year), whereas in the past they used to spread out across the jump.
Bearing in mind the new changes, how many finishers do you predict this year ( given good to soft ground) ?
With the new entry conditions etc. the field has a classier feel about it year-by-year but it is still a test and I would expect less than half the field to complete and would plump for 15-18 to complete the course.
Grand National or Gold Cup ?
Have to be the Grand National for me in terms of spectacle and capturing the imagination of the casual racing watcher; the Gold Cup is more the purists race.
Who would you consider to be a lively outsider in this years field ?
Who would you consider to be a lively outsider in this years field ?
SOLL would fit the bill in that department, I was quite taken with his run in the Hennessy where he only faded late on having been off the course for a while and then he got rather bogged down in the Welsh Grand National. His gutsy win at Sandown pointed to his chance here and if he gets into the race his prominent and fluent jumping style should see him go well as long as there is some cut in the ground.
What instructions would you give to a jockey riding in the National ?
As you can see from my other answers I like to see a horse that is given every chance in the race and ridden relatively prominently but I don’t think that you should change tactics and stick to those which best suit the horse and his profile. The main thing for me would be not to panic and be adaptable, as in a race which is nearly 10 minutes long you may need a Plan B and possibly C and D as well.
Who would you most like to spend a day at the Grand National with and why ?
Although all the guys who commentate on the Grand National now are superb, there is only one voice that can be associated with the great race and that’s Sir Peter O’Sullevan – his commentaries are like the soundtrack to my early racing years and he would make a fascinating companion for a day at the National – and not least, he likes a bet too!
Where will you be watching the big race ?
At home in the betting bunker this year – three computer screens and two TV’s.
If you owned a horse that won the National and it won how would you celebrate ?
Now that is a real pipedream but it would obviously involve a drink or two. I’ve only lived in the North West for just over three years but we have a tremendous local pub in Blackrod called The Poacher and it would be fantastic to parade the horse outside there and then buy all the regulars a drink (probably several). On a very serious note, I would also donate some of the prizemoney to charity with one in particular being special – The Injured Jockeys Fund. With JT McNamara very much in our thoughts it would be fantastic if everyone could support this charity this year that does so much good work and supports the brave body of men and women that provide our entertainment. Let’s not forget the horses either so one of the horse rehabilitation charities would get a healthy donation also.
Thanks for giving up some of your time Andy. Keep an eye out for the rest of our Q&As this week as we have some familiar faces from Channel 4 racing coming up.
PS. BetVictor are paying an amazing 6 (SIX) places on the Grand National - to open an account AND get a free bonus bet, click here www.freeaintreebets.com
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