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Wow ... What a week. We got the National weights and formed a National market. Simon Cowell (Phil Smith) then threw a wildcard in by giving Tidal Bay a featherweight based on his ability. We backed him at 22s on tuesday and laid him at 16s on wednesday (phew!) ... And now Tiday Bay is a non-runner! The impact of this extends far beyond one horse. Even though TB had a real chance of the weight (guaranteed first 3 we reckon), he actually gave everyone else a chance in some ways.
Some of the leading contenders like Teaforthree and Prince De Beauchene are still at the forefront of our minds but we now need to take stock and as the weights go up our attentions have turned to the likes of Magnanimity, Wyck Hill and Chicago Grey with a glance at Tatenen and Tartak. There used to be a theory that two and a half miles went well in the National and this has been franked in recent years by Big Fella Thanks, hence our impending investigation into the latter 2.
Big weights have recently performed well in the big one, but we have a theory that this may be about to change with the changes to the course, in particular the lowering of the core of the fences. I read some concerns last week that horses 'feel' that the fences are lower below them and therefore jump lower and faster. I believe this will give a marginal advantage to lower weighted horses but a few lengths can make all the difference. Let us know your thoughts ...
So on to tomorrows action where a plethora of National wannabee-winners run. At Haydock we have the feature National trial. This is always a dour test usually run on heavy ground and tomorrow is no different. The ones to concentrate on are Teaforthree, Rigadin De Beauchene, Giles Cross, Well Refreshed, Triggerman and Cannington Brook. We predict Rigadin De Beauchene to justify favouritism but Triggerman could be the best value each way. For purely sentimental reasons, we'd love Giles Cross or the hat-trick seeking Silver By Nature to win though.
Our most exciting news is that we are at Haydock tomorrow as exclusive guests of the Scotch Piper syndicate, owners of Across The Bay, who goes in the Rendlesham. He was due to run in the National trial but on ground that is pretty atrocious this is an easier task. With hindsight his performance off top weight in the Welsh National was pretty good considering he had a breathing problem during the race and he has had a breathing operation since. On his 3rd to Big Bucks at Aintree he must have a chance although Trustan Times is probably the one to beat.
Later on the card, National entry Cloudy Lane also goes for the McCain yard in the Walrus Hunter chase although we feel Cottage Oak is the winner.
Over at Ascot, several National entries go in their big h'cap chase. The Rainbow Hunter has the best chance although I do know Tatenen has been aimed at this race for months as his main aim for the season but the ground may have ruined his chance. His owners will be in attendance too as they have Ghizao in the Ascot Chase and also sponsor a later race. Cappa Bleu's connections will be ecstatic with a top 5 finish I reckon as this is definitely a blowout.
That's all for now ... keep an eye on our timeline tomorrow for all the live Haydock action.
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