Cheltenham day 4 - what is Bob Worth?

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Well after a great day on Thursday we hope the trend of improving every day continues. We had both big race winners and a host of placed horses (8/1, 9/1, 9/1, 10/1, 20/1, 20/1) .... Boom in !

Onto day 3 action, where the Cheltenham Gold Cup is the star turn. The ground has been steadily drying all week and the scene is set, although heavy rain is forecast in the afternoon which may just require horses to have that extra bit of stamina going up the Cheltenham hill. A recipe for almost perfect jumping ground. So the stage is set ... by 3.30 today we will know who has the leading role and who are the bit-parts.

Day 4

Triumph hurdle
In the big novice hurdle division it's 1-1 this week between the english and irish. This seems another head to head between Our Connor and Far West. This is a close call but we have to go with Our Connor. I think we can expect a good run from Kashmir Peak. This fella is highly regarded and after winning a Grade 2 at Doncaster he fell when mounting a challenge against a useful Nicholls yardstick who reopposes here. John Quinn also has a knack of producing spring novices like Countrwide Flame and Blythe Knight. Swynmor is also a fascinating entry at an astonishing price. The former useful flat racer was looking like the easy winner of the Finale hurdle at Chepstow when falling at the last, he is way too big at around 25/1.

County hurdle
Another very competitive handicap (as if we hadn't had enough of those this week) and a race usually targeted by the Irish, let's start with their interesting contenders, particularly Gordon Elliott's. Discoteca is 5lb better off with Tennis Cap today and we think has the beating of the Mullins horse so why he is over twice the price is beyond us. Ted Veale is short enough considering he has never encountered ground this quick. Shadow Catcher was strongly fancied for the Triumph last year by Gordon Elliott and has had a quiet time since but his run when splitting Hisabaat and Countrywide Flame is top notch. He will strip fitter for a recent A/W run at Dundalk. Cotton Mill should run a big race and Denis O'Regan is adamant after today's race you'll never see him on this mark again. He was giving Simonsig a run till carrying out last year and ran fantastically in the Betfair Hurdle first time out this year. He swerved the Champion Hurdle for this. Claret Cloak maybe worth an e/w punt. He goes well on the ground and judged on his run behind good yardstick Raya Star he may have a chance here. I think we can write off his last run. For sentimental reasons we'd love to see Punjabi go well with Geraghty on board but there's no reason to think he's half the horse of old just yet.

Albert Bartlett

At Fishers Cross may finally get McCoy off the mark for the week. He has very solid form and the last minute rain will only help his cause. I know the Henderson cam this a lot of Utopie Des Bordes and believe he represents one of their best value prices of the week at around 10/1. Le Bec is a great each way price at 25/1. After winning first time up very nicely he was just touched off by Taquin De Seuil, who went on to win the Challow.

Gold Cup

I still feel the Gold Cup is a muddling affair this year without a genuine standout contender. My golf pro says the best way to work out what club you need is first to work out what club it isn't !  Therefore if a 5 iron is too big and a 7 iron won't get you there, it must be a 6 iron. My Gold Cup thinking follows the same process. I still have to question some of Sir Des Champs form, I'm not sure if Silviniaco Conti handles the track here and Long Run may find this a mile too short on this ground! Therefore by process of elimination in the search for a winner we end up with Bobs Worth. He loves it here, has good form is a confident selection. Best each way in the race is the aforementioned Long Run and if you want bigger price The Giant Bolster isn't bad.

Bob showing his Worth last year

Foxhunters
One of the strongest Irish fancies of the week and one of my bankers of the week is Salsify. Defending champion and winner of the best Irish trial since, I can't see him losing. I've always had Chapoturgeon down as a non-stayer and on softer ground than last year he goes backwards for me. Of the rest Cottage Oak is the one I'd fancy to fill second spot and he's a good each way price. He's done nothing wrong this year and won well in the Walrus at Haydock.

Martin Pipe Conditionals

Sometimes it pays to side with the best jockeys in affairs such as this and our first selection is Ma Filleuile ridden by the able Jeremiah McGrath. This mare beat Swincombe Flambe last time and she franked the form against Quevega on Tuesday. Toner D'Oudairies is expected to go well but has been chasing and runs in this as he didn't get into any of the chases this week. Our other selection is Make Your Mark for the Mullins/Gigginstown combo. He had a good novice season and with only one run this year will strip fitter and is unexposed.

Grand Annual

The annual 'gettin out' stakes is yet another tough handicap. Named after Nicky's father in recent years, he always produces some for this and had 3 of the first 4 home last year and 3 of them return here. We fancy his best chance to be Anquetta, who is well in with Tanks For That and only had his first run this at Mussleburgh recently. Going well 2 out he just didn't quite finish his race probably due to a lack of fitness. Kid Cassidy was favourite for this last year and off a 2lb lower mark has to be fancied and the Henderson/Carberry combo produced the winner last year. Of the rest Kumbeshwar and Oiseau De Nuit could go well but at a big price we like Viva Colonia. He appears to like this better ground and a recent change of scenery has done him well. His last run was a cracker beating 3 good sorts. He also handles the track as his 5th in Greatwood proves.

Thanks for reading each day and I hope you have had a few of our horses on your side as we've had some great each way bets in this week and a few winners too so it's been very profitable so far (As a rule of thumb back anything under 5s to win and anything over as an each way).

It just remains to say thanks to Cheltenham for a great week, they may have the best quality race of the year but we have the toughest ... move over ... it's Aintree's turn next.

A 'proper' fence

Cheltenham day 3 - Oscar won't make us 'grouchy'

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Day 2 provided us with 3 winners and 5 places (3 of them over 14/1) during another episode of the Willie & Ruby show. The day really belonged to the new 'tank' on the block though, Sprinter Sacre. He certainly lived up to his nickname of 'The Black Aeroplane' as he flew round Prestbury, winning unextended from Cheltenham stalwart Sizing Europe. Time form have given him a provisional rating of 179p for today's saunter, already putting him ahead of Kauto Star. This feels a little flattering but time will tell and remember he's only seven.

Day 3

Golden Miller novices
The reputation of Dynaste goes on the line here and he should confirm the low odds. After sideswerving the RSA for fear of bad ground I fear he might have a bigger battle on here. Aupcharlie may need further but Texas Jack's last 2 runs have shown him improve and the form of the RSA now makes him look very good value and an each way on him is advised. Captain Conan may be the one to expose any chinks in the Pipe horses armour but we'll see.

Pertemps final
Traditionally one of the hardest races to pick the winner of, this year is no different. Lots of plots being hatched in darkened rooms by candlelight lead many a horse to this race. Form is not always the best guide. Consistency is. For that reason our main selection is Jetson. Jessica's charge has been thereabouts in some good handicaps on the other side of the Irish Sea without quite getting up and comes here with the right credentials. For some each way value try Ely Brown who won his qualifier in a slog at Warwick or Junior who is well treated on his best chase form.

Ryanair chase
A good preparation and solid form makes Cue Card an easy pick here. The former bumper winner has also been placed at the last 2 festivals and his only blot this year was at Kempton on terrible ground where he was still on the bridle 3 out, only to not get home. I can't have First Lieutenant although I know most of the jockeys, trainers and punduits fancy him and his form is the best on offer but always in defeat. I prefer an animal that knows how to get his head in front. Champion Court could be the best each way and his last run can be ignored when not fully fit.

World Hurdle
The ground is the key to this race. On soft ground Reve De Sivola wins, on good-ish ground Oscar Whisky wins. The form of their Cleeve hurdle tussle is the best on show and given the improving ground and weather we just side with Oscar Whisky who gets his chance for a major Cheltenham crown in Big Bucks' absence. Best of the rest may be Solwhit who looked a superstar when winning the Aintree Hurdle four years ago but has had time off due to injuries. He has returned well and as a 9yo he will find this slower pace more suitable.



Oscar Whisky in full flight



Byrne Group Plate

Another competitive handicap here where many have a chance. Poquelin is now returning to a winning mark, Divers has been laid out and really tempts me but the first selection is Cantlow who has been kept away from the better novice races for this. He is a progressive sort and we certainly havent seen the best of him. For each way value we have 2 picks. Tartak is now on a very handy mark and hasnt been running badly, particularly over too far last time. Kapga De Cerisy is from the in-form Venetia Williams stable and beat 'talking horse' Fago by 15 lengths last time.

Kim Muir

A very difficult race to put any faith in due to all the pilots being amateurs, sometimes just having the right jockey is worth 5 lengths. Romanesco and Alfie Sherrin are probably worth a small punt.

Cross Country
The postponed cross-country race is up next. We have this as a straight match between Arabella Boy and Bostons Angel although at the prices Boston's gets the vote. A former RSA winner who didn't seem to progress, he has took well to these unique tests. His last run can be ignored as struggled over some of the banks but this is an easier course. Recommended to back him each way. We also think Shakervilz is an amazing price each way and is probably our strongest each way selection of the whole week. The booking of Katie Walsh is also a bonus.

Cheltenham day 2 - Alexandre The Great ?

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Well racing took place if not somewhat delayed. We had a great start to the day with Champagne Fever and a good finish with Ohio Gold e/w, hope you got the 20/1 on offer. In between there were 2 non-events with Simonsig and Quevega guaranteed winners, so we looked for value and failed although Overturn decided to throw in a shocker and that may have cost us second. Our Mick would have gone closer only for a few mistakes, but obliged each way.

All hats off to Hurricane Fly and Quevega though ... true champions and a great sight to behold. Along with Big Bucks this is truly the age of some great hurdlers and this is what makes the big festivals different to a nice Sandown card on a saturday. There's real emotion when these horses win. 365 long days of preparation all put on the line in five minutes or so of grit, power and determination.

Onto day 2, where we start with 3 novice races and end with 3 lotteries. This is undoubtedly the toughest day of the week.

NH Chase

Back In Focus is the selection here. A horse I've liked since his Haydock Graded novice win, when with Howard Johnson, he is campaigned selectively due to his liking for soft ground. He's a thorough stayer who will relish this trip. Godmsejudge is probably next best. An improving type, he ran with great merit in Warwick's Classic Chase before following up with a nice win over 3m 2f at the same track.

Neptune Novices

Reputations must be treated with a little wariness sometimes and at this festival there's no bigger reputation than the one that comes with Pont Alexandre. Willie Mullins says he's could end up being the best he's ever trained and all of Ireland agree with him. It would be a major upset if he were to be beat.

RSA Chase

This looks a very good renewal of the RSA and the race is sure to produce many future winners, however the trio of Unioniste, Boston Bob and Lord WIndermere are of most interest. Given the former was reported not fully fit at Newbury we'll side with Unioniste. If it was a slog Boston Bob would have been the selection but the ground was not too bad yesterday. Lord Windermere would be the each way selection.

Queen Mother Chase

This is just a question of not who wins, but by how far Sprinter Sacre wins. Not a betting contest, if you can't resist a punt then a small place or each way bet on former champion Sizing Europe is probably safest.

Coral Cup

In many books, Pendra is the best handicapped horse of the week and he is a worthy favourite and must go close. Fiveforthree was a very good horse a couple of years ago and barring injuries down the years would probably be running in the World Hurdle here instead so makes for a good each way. Of the remainder, Meister Eckhart is overpriced at 16/1 given that he finished 2nd first time out in the National Spirit last time and was 5th in the 2012 Albert Bartlett. He has clearly took time bringing him back for a tilt at this.

We finish day 2 with a couple of the trickiest affairs all week.

Fred Winter

First up is the Fred Winter. A newish race here, the trends point to a horse with experience but not necessarily winning. A horse fitting the bill is Megalypos. The Simon Munir/Nicky Henderson combo won the race last year and this lad has been running in some good contests in defeat. Of the each ways Fatcatinthehat and Ptit Zig look good value.

Bumper
The Bumper is one of the trickiest races of the week with so many unexposed youngsters on show. Sgt Reckless has reportedly been 'working all over' good flat horses at Mick Channon's yard and a minor coup here is that top flat jockey Richard Hughes rides. Blackmail comes here with a chance despite 2 defeats and the booking of Barry Geraghty is not unnoticed. We think the best value in the race could be Milo Man. His only run to date produced a 25l drubbing of a fairly fancied David Pipe horse and an each way chance is taken at around 18/1

Cheltenham day 1 - Champagne to provide the fizz

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Well the first of our British Spring festivals is upon us. Many months of tall reputations and plots are about to crumble over the coming days, while 27 alone will be victorious. The weather is doing it's level best to thwart the first day but the covers are on and the racecourse is bracing itself for a bitterly cold night. Fingers crossed !



You can almost hear the 'Roar'


Here's our thoughts on day 1

Supreme Novices
Some solid form on offer here with My Tent Or Yours, Jezki, Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets, along with Un Atout who has huge unexposed potential. With the ground turning soft we fancy Champagne Fever. Willie Mullins was very positive about his chances and Ruby rides this rather than the Nicholls runner. His Grade 1 win last time looks good. Dodging Bullets offers some each-way value.

Champagne Fever

Arkle
A 2 horse affair with one of my favourite horses in training, the fantastic die-hard Overturn, up against the potential superstar Simonsig. With the softening ground it is with a heavy heart that we go for the Henderson horse as we'd love McCain's charge to snatch it. He will make the running and if Simonsig has any chinks in the armour then Overturn will expose them. Back Overturn without Simonsig.

JLT Chase
Our Mick laid out for this since last year and a worthy favourite. Jonjo always targets h'cap chases at the festival so Merry King massively respected. If you're looking for an each way at a big price then Hey Big Spender or Planet Of Sound are sliding nicely down the weights.

Champion Hurdle
You can read about this till the cows come home today so we'll be short and sweet. Its Zarkander for with Hurricane Fly and Rock On Ruby filling the places.

Cross Country
We have this as a straight match between Arabella Boy and Bostons Angel although at the prices Boston's gets the vote. A former RSA winner who didn't seem to progress, he has took well to these unique tests. His last run can be ignored as struggled over some of the banks but this is an easier course. Recommended to back him each way. We also think Shakervilz is an amazing price each way.

Boston's Angel (right)

Mares Hurdle
Well this is all about Quevega going for the 5 timer. Best bet for us is Kentford Grey Lady e/w. Has ran well over the winter and trip and ground are much more suitable here. For a big each way value Alasi appears very overpriced.
UPDATE : Hills are 5/2 on Une Artiste 'without Quevega' which looks value.

Novices h'cap
A very competetive handicap here but JP McManus has a plot horse in Colour Squadron. This race is for novices rated 140 or less. If Colour Squadron had won last time he would have gone over that threshold. The race comments read 'held up ... headway 4th last ... went 2nd closing stages ... etc.'. Recommended bet each way at just over 5-1. Similarly Carlito Brigante has been laid out for this, so much so he has been off the track proper since November but a recent all weather run will have him fit. His 4th behind Dynaste, Fingal Bay and Unioniste is the hottest novice form this season. For bigger prices look at the frustratingly inconsistent Restless Harry at 50-1 but particularly Ohio Gold, his form is very good and 20-1 is way too big.

Good luck whatever you back !

It's time ... To face ... The music !

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Wow ... What a week. We got the National weights and formed a National market. Simon Cowell (Phil Smith) then threw a wildcard in by giving Tidal Bay a featherweight based on his ability. We backed him at 22s on tuesday and laid him at 16s on wednesday (phew!) ... And now Tiday Bay is a non-runner!  The impact of this extends far beyond one horse. Even though TB had a real chance of the weight (guaranteed first 3 we reckon), he actually gave everyone else a chance in some ways.

Some of the leading contenders like Teaforthree and Prince De Beauchene are still at the forefront of our minds but we now need to take stock and as the weights go up our attentions have turned to the likes of Magnanimity, Wyck Hill and Chicago Grey with a glance at Tatenen and Tartak. There used to be a theory that two and a half miles went well in the National and this has been franked in recent years by Big Fella Thanks, hence our impending investigation into the latter 2.
Big weights have recently performed well in the big one, but we have a theory that this may be about to change with the changes to the course, in particular the lowering of the core of the fences. I read some concerns last week that horses 'feel' that the fences are lower below them and therefore jump lower and faster. I believe this will give a marginal advantage to lower weighted horses but a few lengths can make all the difference. Let us know your thoughts ...

So on to tomorrows action where a plethora of National wannabee-winners run. At Haydock we have the feature National trial. This is always a dour test usually run on heavy ground and tomorrow is no different. The ones to concentrate on are Teaforthree, Rigadin De Beauchene, Giles Cross, Well Refreshed, Triggerman and Cannington Brook. We predict Rigadin De Beauchene to justify favouritism but Triggerman could be the best value each way. For purely sentimental reasons, we'd love Giles Cross or the hat-trick seeking Silver By Nature to win though.

Our most exciting news is that we are at Haydock tomorrow as exclusive guests of the Scotch Piper syndicate, owners of Across The Bay, who goes in the Rendlesham. He was due to run in the National trial but on ground that is pretty atrocious this is an easier task. With hindsight his performance off top weight in the Welsh National was pretty good considering he had a breathing problem during the race and he has had a breathing operation since. On his 3rd to Big Bucks at Aintree he must have a chance although Trustan Times is probably the one to beat.

Later on the card, National entry Cloudy Lane also goes for the McCain yard in the Walrus Hunter chase although we feel Cottage Oak is the winner.

Over at Ascot, several National entries go in their big h'cap chase. The Rainbow Hunter has the best chance although I do know Tatenen has been aimed at this race for months as his main aim for the season but the ground may have ruined his chance. His owners will be in attendance too as they have Ghizao in the Ascot Chase and also sponsor a later race. Cappa Bleu's connections will be ecstatic with a top 5 finish I reckon as this is definitely a blowout.
That's all for now ... keep an eye on our timeline tomorrow for all the live Haydock action.

Here comes the flop ! ... Grand National weights revealed

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Today saw an absolutely spiffing lunch at The Savoy supplemented by the revealing of the 2013 Grand National weights. Regular blog readers will know my poker analogy of the National. The hands are dealt when the first entries are made ... The 'flop' comes from the announcement of the weights today ... Then the 'river' cards are shown between now and post time where contenders run and can show how well handicapped they are. Of course some 'players' can bluff until the big day itself.

Looking through the weights there is always opinion and conjecture but right at the head of the list is Tidal Bay, who starts us off on a contreversial footing. Simon Cowell (as I like to call the BHA handicapper Phil Smith) has rightly allocated this fella top weight ... But has then compressed everything to him by around 9 pounds. At the 22-ish to 1 available on Betfair he is an immediate stand-out bet and I have invested. I'd rate him around a 12-1 shot but if Ruby jumps on board, he could go off as short as 7-1 on the day. High weights are becoming less of a hindrance these days as the quality of entries increases. Gone are the days of 'Peaty Sandy' running from nearly 3 stone out of the handicap.

I'll do some further analysis over the coming days but my initial shortlist comprises of Teaforthree, Magnanimity, Joncol, Cappa Bleu, Prince De Beauchene and of course, our own Across The Bay, who we'll be following live at Haydock on Saturday with some tweets from the course.

For some excellent coverage of all todays weights and reaction from trainers and owners and a view from Phil Smith as to why he was so kind to Tidal Bay, look at The Guardian Sport website.

http://m.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2013/feb/12/grand-national-weights-lunch-2013

The chase is on !

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Normal service seems to be fully resumed finally after all the weather we've had recently. Hope you all managed to not 'bend the fender' !  We have an exciting weekend of action upcoming with Sandown only managing to race by staging an all-chase card and also we have the West Wales National at Ffos Las.

Before we move onto a quick preview of tomorrows action, we have some exciting news about our linkup with connections of Grand National entry, Across The Bay. We will be following his build-up and will have interviews etc. over the coming weeks. Watch this space. His next intended target is the Haydock National trial in 2 weeks time. Just to report that following his run at Chepstow where he came to challenge a mile out before fading, he has had a breathing op. Jason reported he 'gurgled' badly and was still trying to go but was struggling with breathing. Without this he would almost certainly been in first four. He also had the problem to a lesser extent at Aintree when just touched off by Wayward Prince (also giving 6lb). Hopefully he will be back to normal and having finished at Chepstow, he has been dropped 3lb by the handicapper. He's in good order and the plan is Haydock then Aintree.

Whilst on the subject of Aintree, it was the first declaration stage this week. 84 horses have been entered with no real surprises. Prince De Beauchene deserves to be one of the market leaders. He won very well in a conditions hurdle over the festive break, showed good form winning the Bobbyjo before injury last year and won the competitive h'cap preceding the National a few years back so appears a spring horse. He is still potentially well treated due to his low mileage. I still think Ballabriggs has a say and Cappa Blue will be tiptop come the day. I hate speculating before the next stage as racing's Simon Cowell, Mr Phil Smith has to have his say, though it is good to see his recent trend of giving the old-timers a chance.

Onto Sandown ... in the Masters chase there are 3 National entries, the potentially classy Roberto Goldback, Summery Justice and the frustrating Viking Blond. Cases could be made for the former and latter here but Keppols Hill is certainly the one to beat (owned by the very good Timeform Betfair racing club, worth a look if you'd like to be an owner without all the expense, contact @Matthew_booth from Betfair, good guy I had the pleasure of sharing a table at Aintree with a few years back ... no nonsense!)

Meanwhile over at Ffos Las we have a National ... the geographically accurate West Wales National has our interest. Only Summery Justice (2nd preference) has an Aintree entry which is surprising, given that Junior, Cannington Brook and Alfie Spinner are in the race. Cannington Brook probably needs softer ground than likely at Aintree. Alfie Sherrin has time on his side and his Sandown disappointment probably ruled him out. For me, Junior is a surprise omission rom Aintree although he probably missed his opportunity 2 years ago after bolting up at Cheltenham but then missing out due to being too low in the weights. Given a run, I believe he would have been in the top 6 home that year. His win in the softlooking Rehearsal at Newcastle and a further 3lb rise certainly hasn't helped. As its a National though we feel compelled to preview. We think Alfie Sherrin has a great chance if bouncing back. Cannington Brook is probably best on the ground. Shaking Hands may improve but we really like Our Island (picured) at the price. Can't see anything outside those 4.

Over in Ireland tomorrow its interesting that no National entries are running in their trial but 2 go in the cross country race, Bostons Angel and Shakervilz. The one to watch may be Jessica Harrington's charge who has been very disappointing since winning an RSA. His spark is slowly returning.

Happy punting and enjoy the action.